Carbon Removal Prices 2026 to 2040: Senken's Price Corridor

Senken's overview of carbon removal (CDR) price trends from 2026 to 2040. We review where prices for nature-based and tech-based removals are heading, based on our internal data and market research, and explain why they rise rather than fall.

The corridor gives a low, base and high path for two classes: rated nature-based removals (ARR), from €33 a tonne today to €88 in the base case by 2040, and biochar on the Nasdaq CORCCHAR index basis, from €120 to €180. Three drivers carry the argument: production costs are not falling (the Grantham Research Institute at LSE measured a 1% learning rate across 43 million tonnes of contracted removal), supply takes five to ten years to build for forests and 12 to 24 months for biochar, and demand is already written into adopted rules with dates: the SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0, the EU 2040 target and the EU CRCF.

The report also shows why a buyer's blended price rises 3.3x as the required share of long-lived removals grows, works through a 100,000-tonne budget example, and documents every source. 16 pages, available in English and German.