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REDD versus REDD plus
The original REDD program focused only on stopping deforestation and degradation. The "plus" in REDD+ expanded the scope to include three more activities: conserving existing forest carbon, managing forests sustainably, and enhancing forest carbon through restoration.
This distinction matters because projects can now earn credits for improving forest health, not just preventing loss. However, most REDD+ credits traded today still come from avoided deforestation rather than forest enhancement.
Activities eligible under REDD+
Five types of activities can generate REDD+ credits:
- Reducing deforestation: Preventing forest conversion to agriculture, mining, or development
- Reducing degradation: Stopping partial damage from unsustainable logging or fire
- Conservation: Maintaining forest carbon in threatened areas
- Sustainable management: Harvesting timber while keeping forests healthy long-term
- Enhancement: Restoring degraded forests to increase carbon storage
Global emission impact of REDD deforestation
Forests store about 300 billion tons of carbon in their biomass alone. That's roughly 40 times what the world emits from fossil fuels in a single year. Once released through deforestation, it takes decades or longer for new forests to recapture the same amount, which makes preventing forest loss particularly valuable for near-term climate targets.
How REDD+ carbon credits are generated and verified
Turning forest protection into carbon credits involves three technical stages. Each stage determines both how many credits get issued and whether those credits represent real climate benefits.
1. Baseline and reference level setting
Project developers look at historical deforestation rates, typically going back 10-15 years. This baseline shows what would likely happen without the project, creating the reference point for calculating emission reductions.
Here's where things get tricky. The baseline directly determines credit quantity, which creates financial pressure to inflate projected deforestation. Some projects have selected unrealistically high baselines by choosing time periods with unusually high forest loss or by claiming threats that weren't actually credible.
2. Monitoring reporting and verification
Projects track forest cover over time using satellite imagery and field measurements, then compare actual results against the baseline. Third-party auditors verify the measurements and emission calculations before credits can be issued.
Modern satellite technology can detect even small-scale forest loss, making it harder to overstate results. Still, verification quality varies depending on how rigorously auditors scrutinize baseline assumptions.
3. Issuance and registry transfer
Verified emission reductions become carbon credits at a rate of one credit per ton of CO2 avoided. Credits get recorded in registries like Verra or Gold Standard, then buyers purchase them and the registry marks them "retired" to prevent double-counting.
The registry system provides transparency about project details and verification reports. However, registries don't independently judge credit quality—they just confirm that projects followed approved methods, which means weak methods can produce questionable credits that are technically "verified."
Key quality risks additionality permanence and leakage
Three fundamental problems affect whether REDD+ credits represent genuine climate benefits or just paper reductions. You'll hear these terms constantly when evaluating forest protection projects.
Additionality tests
Additionality means the forest would actually have been cleared without carbon finance. Proving this requires showing that deforestation threats were real and that carbon revenue made protection economically viable.
Many projects struggle here because they protect forests facing minimal actual threat. A 2023 UC Berkeley analysis found that prominent REDD+ projects significantly overstated their impact by inflating baseline projections, creating what researchers called "phantom credits" with little real climate benefit.
Permanence buffers
Permanence addresses the risk that protected forests get cleared later, releasing the carbon that credits claimed to save. Unlike replacing fossil fuels, which permanently avoids emissions, forest carbon stays vulnerable to future clearing.
Registries handle this by requiring projects to put 10-20% of credits into a "buffer pool" as insurance. If forests get cleared later, credits from the pool get cancelled to compensate. The problem? Buffer sizes might not cover large-scale losses, and they don't help if projects fail after companies have already retired their credits.
Leakage mitigation
Leakage happens when protecting one forest just shifts deforestation somewhere else. If a project stops farmers from clearing forest in one spot but those farmers clear forest elsewhere instead, emissions haven't actually dropped.
Projects try to prevent this by monitoring surrounding areas and providing alternative income sources. But detecting leakage remains technically hard, especially when displacement happens far away, and many projects likely underestimate how much leakage they cause.
Major controversies and critiques of the REDD program
REDD+ has faced serious criticism from both climate scientists and social justice advocates. The controversies center on whether credits represent real climate benefits and whether projects harm local communities.
Over-crediting claims
Investigations between 2023-2024 found that many popular REDD+ projects overstated emission reductions, sometimes by 90% or more. The core problem? Inflated baselines that claimed forests faced imminent clearing when evidence showed minimal actual threat.
This matters because companies claimed carbon neutrality while their purchased credits delivered far less climate benefit than advertised. The revelations prompted registries to revise methods and led some buyers to pause REDD+ purchases.
Indigenous rights and benefit sharing
Many REDD+ projects operate on lands traditionally owned by Indigenous peoples and local communities. Yet these groups often receive minimal benefits or weren't properly consulted during project development. Some projects have restricted traditional forest uses or even facilitated land grabs.
Leading registries now require free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) from affected communities. However, enforcement varies widely, and power imbalances can undermine genuine participation.
Project versus jurisdictional debate
Traditional REDD+ projects protect individual forest areas, while jurisdictional REDD+ works at state or country scale with government-led programs. Jurisdictional approaches can address leakage more completely, but they face challenges ensuring local benefits and often move slowly due to political complexity.
The market increasingly favors jurisdictional approaches, though project-level REDD+ still dominates current trading. Debate continues about whether both approaches can coexist or whether projects undermine jurisdictional efforts by protecting only the easiest forests.
Buyer checklist for high-integrity REDD+ credits
Finding genuinely high-quality REDD+ projects takes work. Here's what to look for when evaluating credits.
1. Align with science-based targets
The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) allows companies to use high-quality credits for neutralization claims beyond their value chain, but credits can't replace direct emission cuts. REDD+ qualifies as avoided emissions rather than carbon removal, making it best suited for offsetting residual emissions you can't eliminate.
Companies typically allocate most of their carbon budget to direct reductions, using REDD+ only for hard-to-eliminate emissions in final decarbonization stages.
2. Verify third-party ratings and data
Independent agencies like BeZero, Calyx Global, and Sylvera assess REDD+ projects for additionality, permanence, and leakage risks. Their ratings often differ dramatically from registry approvals, making independent evaluation essential.
Rating AgencyAssessment FocusKey DifferentiatorBeZeroRisk scoring from AAA to DProbabilistic quality approachSylveraMethodology analysisTechnology-driven monitoringCalyx GlobalAdditionality and baselinesAcademic research foundation
Senken's AI-powered Quality Framework evaluates projects against over 600 metrics, synthesizing data from multiple agencies alongside registry documentation to identify the top 5% of vetted projects.
3. Assess social and biodiversity co-benefits
High-quality projects deliver benefits beyond carbon, including biodiversity conservation and sustainable livelihoods for communities. Look for robust community engagement, documented benefit-sharing, and certification for social and environmental safeguards like Climate, Community & Biodiversity (CCB) Standards.
Projects that ignore or harm communities face higher failure risks, since community support proves essential for long-term protection.
4. Confirm registry and legal title
Verify that credits are registered with reputable standards like Verra, Gold Standard, or ART-TREES. Check that projects hold clear legal rights to land and carbon, since disputed tenure creates legal and reputational risks.
Projects on Indigenous territories need documented free, prior, and informed consent through formal consultation and agreements.
Integrating REDD+ offsets into a net-zero strategy
REDD+ plays a specific role in climate strategies, complementing rather than replacing direct emission cuts.
Allocation across abatement and removal
Climate strategies distinguish between avoided emissions like REDD+, operational efficiency improvements, and carbon removals like reforestation. REDD+ prevents CO2 from entering the atmosphere rather than removing historical emissions.
Leading guidance suggests balancing avoidance and removal activities, with portfolios shifting toward more removals as companies approach net-zero dates. A typical mix might include 60-70% avoidance credits early on, shifting to 70-80% removals later.
Timing and volume planning
Organizations can purchase credits annually to match current emissions or forward-commit to multi-year volumes at locked prices. Forward commitments secure better pricing and give project developers funding certainty, but reduce flexibility if emission reductions accelerate faster than expected.
Calculate volumes based on residual emissions after planned reductions, not current baseline emissions. This approach complements rather than substitutes for direct decarbonization.
Reporting under CSRD CDP and SBTi
The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) requires European companies to disclose carbon credit use separately from emission reductions. CDP climate disclosure similarly asks companies to report purchases distinctly from Scope 1-3 reductions.
Document your selection criteria, quality assessment process, and specific projects supporting claims. Senken's platform generates compliance-ready reports aligned with CSRD, CDP, and SBTi requirements.
Market prices demand and policy outlook for REDD+
REDD+ markets have experienced significant volatility as quality concerns reshaped buyer preferences.
Price drivers 2024-2030
Prices vary dramatically based on quality, ranging from under $5 per ton for projects facing credibility concerns to over $20 per ton for jurisdictional programs with strong ratings. This spread reflects growing buyer sophistication and willingness to pay for demonstrable quality.
Jurisdictional REDD+ credits are projected to reach average prices around $15 by 2028, driven by limited supply of high-integrity projects and increasing corporate demand.
Article 6 and compliance markets
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes frameworks for countries to trade emission reductions internationally, potentially creating government demand for REDD+ credits. However, implementation has progressed slowly, with many technical details about eligibility and authorization still unresolved.
If Article 6 becomes operational, it could significantly increase demand for jurisdictional REDD+ while reducing voluntary market supply.
Tech trends in MRV and AI
Satellite monitoring has advanced rapidly, with high-resolution imagery and machine learning enabling near-real-time forest change detection. These improvements make it harder to overstate protection outcomes or miss unreported deforestation.
Artificial intelligence increasingly helps identify more realistic baselines by analyzing multiple data sources and historical patterns. Senken's AI-powered verification evaluates projects against over 600 quality metrics, identifying discrepancies that traditional audits might miss.
Beyond credits co-benefits and forest protection impact
REDD+ delivers value beyond offsetting through ecosystem services and community benefits.
Biodiversity conservation
Tropical forests contain over half of Earth's terrestrial species despite covering less than 7% of land area. Projects in biodiversity hotspots protect habitat for endangered species while generating carbon credits.
The relationship between carbon and biodiversity isn't automatic, though. Some high-carbon forests have relatively low biodiversity, while some biodiverse forests store less carbon, creating potential tradeoffs.
Community livelihoods
Well-designed projects create sustainable income through benefit-sharing, employment in monitoring activities, and support for alternative livelihoods. These economic benefits can transform local relationships with forests from extraction resources to recognizing their value standing.
Livelihood benefits vary enormously across projects. Look for transparent benefit-sharing mechanisms, documented income flows, and evidence of improved local wellbeing.
Climate adaptation value
Forests regulate local climate by moderating temperatures, maintaining rainfall patterns, and reducing flood risks. These adaptation benefits often matter more to local communities than carbon storage, creating additional motivation for protection.
Intact forests also provide resilience against climate impacts, with healthy ecosystems better able to withstand droughts, fires, and pest outbreaks than degraded forests.
Move forward with confidence talk to a Senken expert
Navigating REDD+ complexity requires expertise in carbon methods, quality assessment, and regulatory compliance. Senken's team brings deep expertise in project evaluation, combining AI-powered assessment with human judgment to identify genuinely high-impact opportunities.
Our platform continuously monitors your portfolio against evolving quality standards, providing early warning of emerging risks and confirming your forest protection investments maintain their integrity over time.
Frequently asked questions about REDD+ carbon credits
How long do REDD+ credits remain valid?
REDD+ credits typically have no expiration date once retired, though project monitoring continues for decades after issuance. The permanence risk means protected forests could theoretically be cleared later, but registries handle this through buffer pools rather than requiring buyers to replace credits.
Can REDD+ be combined with removals in one portfolio?
Yes, combining REDD+ avoided emissions with removal credits like reforestation creates a balanced portfolio addressing both preventing new emissions and drawing down historical emissions. Leading strategies include both types, with the mix shifting toward more removals as companies approach net-zero dates.
Is REDD+ eligible for future compliance schemes?
REDD+ eligibility for mandatory markets remains uncertain and depends on evolving regulations and international Article 6 rules. Some jurisdictional programs are positioning for potential compliance use, but companies shouldn't assume voluntary credits will automatically qualify for future regulatory requirements.