Offtakes are up 260% — what this means for carbon credit supply & your 2026 plan
Happy New Year! I hope 2026 is off to a great start for you.
I wanted to kickstart the year by sharing a number that made me stop scrolling this week:
Offtakes grew +260% in 2025.
Meanwhile, retirements rose +3%, and issuances +2%.
And it means one thing: a big share of future supply is already spoken for.
What does this mean?
Offtakes are forward purchase agreements — companies locking in credits from projects that haven’t issued yet.
That +260% tells you a big chunk of future supply is already spoken for. Those credits will never reach the open market.
If you plan to buy spot in 2026 or 2027, you’ll be competing for a shrinking pool.
And here’s the uncomfortable part: the companies signing offtakes are usually buying the highest-quality projects.
What’s left on the spot market may increasingly be the credits nobody wanted to lock in early.
The takeaway: if your approach to carbon credits is still “we’ll figure it out later,” that later is getting more expensive — and lower quality — every quarter.
My 2026 resolution
As the market tightens, my goal is to help sustainability leaders stay ahead, with practical “how-to” guidance and transparent insights into what’s changing, and why it matters. I would like to become the “How-To-Guy” for corporate carbon markets.
No fluff, no jargon — just practical guides that help you actually do the work.
One main channel for this is the newsletter you’re reading.
The other is my new personal page: www.adrianwons.com.
And don’t worry — newsletter subscribers always get everything first 🫡
The ultimate VCM toolkit: 7 guides that actually work
If you missed any of these from last year, here they are again — all built for people managing CSRD, SBTi, or trying to avoid greenwashing risk.
Each one is fast to read, practical to apply, and doesn’t require a PhD.
Questions? Don't hesitate to reply to this email.
See you in two weeks,
Adrian
Source
- Allied Offsets 2025 Market Review — Issuances, retirements, and offtake volumes
Information only. This is not legal or investment advice.
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